Michael Johansson

• 
  Applying models to epidemics
  Michael Johansson

  Recent epidemics of pathogens such as H1N1 influenza virus, MERS coronavirus, chikungunya virus, Ebola virus, and Zika virus, highlight the importance of epidemics on local and global scales. Modeling has long been used as a conceptual tool to describe epidemic dynamics and assess possible interventions, yet the direct use of modeling in the public decision making process remains limited. To help close this gap it is essential to build links between the research and decision-making communities to: ensure that modeling targets match specific public health needs, facilitate the sharing of data and knowledge about that data, establish standards for assessing and communicating model skill, identify ways to effectively communicate predictions and especially uncertainties, and develop systems for operationalizing models for repeated use. Efforts to forecast seasonal dengue and influenza outbreaks highlight opportunities to evaluate forecasting models in the context of specific public health needs and advance both the science of infectious disease forecasting and the integration of forecasting into decision-making processes.